The CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks in November from 47 modeling groups. Of the 47 groups, 42 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, three groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only. The national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,900 to 10,000 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending November 21, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 243,000 to 256,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by November 21, 2020.
