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Noted COVID-19 projection model estimates 20-50% detection rate
January 10, 2021 - 5:02 pm

COVID-19 project believes infections estimates should include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. As of January 2021, they estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US to be roughly 2-4x higher than the reported cases (20-50% detection rate). See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. Because not all currently infected individuals are infectious, they recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of currently infectious individuals.

Source: COVID-19 Projections

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What we can learn from the 1918 Flu Pandemic as the Omicron variant spreads
What we can learn from the 1918 Flu Pandemic as the Omicron variant spreads

Historically, most pandemics end within 2 to 3 years as the virus mutates into a less virulent pathogen and the population builds up immunity. This is what happened to the influenza strain behind the 1918 flu pandemic.

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